"P's" Are Good For You
Dec 29, 2020
Peas are good for you and as the old wives-tale goes, I will be eating black-eyed peas on New Year’s Day for good luck. We could all use some good luck in 2021. In addition to good luck, we could all stand to let go of the hindsight of 2020 to focus on what is probable, plausible, possible, preferable, and provocative for the future. These “P’s” are all about the future(s). Futurists do not believe we can predict the future. We do, however, believe we can map out different versions of the future which is why we use futures with an “s.”
Why examine more than one version of the future? The future is not linear. Our world is increasingly complex and intertwined. It cannot be ironed out into a straight line. To put it in very simplified terms, only looking straight ahead is the equivalent of not looking both ways before crossing the road. You will likely get run over without ever seeing it coming! Just as you should look in more than one direction before crossing the road, we must examine more than one version of the future to anticipate what’s coming.
The Cone of Possibilities is one method that can be used to map multiple versions of the future.
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Probable Futures are those that you believe are most likely to happen. These are the conclusions you would automatically jump to without much thought or examination.
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Plausible Futures are fairly easy to imagine happening with some degree of certainty.
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Possible Futures are broader, require more imagination, and may feel less certain than Plausible Futures. Possible Futures are still based off of today’s events and way of viewing the world.
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Preferred Futures are what you envision based on your goals. It is what you aspire to achieve or what you ideally want to see happen.
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Provocative Futures are those that are hard or even impossible to imagine happening. They are far-fetched and stretch you to think beyond the outer most limits of your ideas, biases, and values. This is the place where new discoveries and opportunities come to play because the mind is challenged to think in different ways.
All 5 “P’s” are necessary to see the full spectrum of possibilities for the future. In 2021, let’s stretch our imaginations to image futures in multiple diverse ways. Don’t forget to eat more than one pea on New Year’s Day!
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