VUCA, is that Vulcan?
Sep 14, 2020
Strategic Foresight Series Part 1: VUCA, is that Vulcan?
The term VUCA has become widely used by those who study and utilize strategic foresight as a discipline. Strategic foresight involves scanning the world around you for clues and hints as to what the future might bring and then planning multiples scenarios proactively addressing different versions of the long-term future. This process helps guide today’s decisions in order to pull you more towards the future you desire. Strategic foresight looks 10, 20, or even 50 years into the future, unlike, strategic planning which is generally in the two to five-year range.
Let’s dive into the four parts of VUCA and why it is important.
V – Volatility is defined as a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably; a tendency to erupt in violence or anger. Change can be a really good thing especially when the change is derived and executed strategically to move towards goal achievement. Strategy is all about how you most effectively and efficiently get from where you are to where you want to be. How can good strategy be accomplished if the environment around you is changing quickly and in unpredictable ways? If you are not on top of your game 100% of the time, volatility can run you over quickly and derail you from achieving your goal.
U – Uncertainty (uncertain) is defined as not known beyond doubt; not having certain knowledge; not clearly identified or defined; not certain to occur; not reliable Clarity and certainty allow us to know the who, what, when, where, and why of a situation. Most people are more comfortable and relaxed when they are “in the know.” Knowing is not usually possible with an uncertain environment. This is why anxiety in 2020 is so high. When people are more anxious, it is harder to make decisions or concentrate fully on tasks. Less gets done, therefore, taking longer to achieve goals.
C – Complexity (complex) is defined as composed of two or more parts; hard to separate, analyze, or solve; With the interconnected and technologically advanced world we live in, there just isn’t much that is simple anymore. Things have more parts made up of many smaller parts. Companies have departments now that didn’t exist 30 years ago. People are expected to know and do more because we have technology at our fingertips. Changes in physical ecosystems can be connected back to something that happened on the other side of the world. Decisions and actions have ripple effects that many who are not analytical thinkers don’t take into account. Even those of us who are analytical thinkers have a hard time wading through the complexity of today’s world because cause and effect thinking doesn’t always work. When so many things and parts need to be taken into consideration, processes and more cumbersome and it just takes longer to get things done.
A – Ambiguity (ambiguous) is defined as doubtful or uncertain especially from obscurity or indistinctness; capable of being understood in two or more possible senses or ways An important part of strategic planning is SMART goals because SMART goals are very clear. Indistinct and obscure things are not SMART, making goal achievement once again more difficult. Also, when things are indistinct, they are left open to more than one interpretation. Think of those photos you see posted on social media that say do you see this or that in the photo. Depending on your perspective people will see things very differently.
A photo on social media may not be a big deal but, if you apply this principle to much larger issues, ambiguity quickly creates complexity. Complexity creates uncertainty and uncertainty can create volatility. Then you have a VUCA cycle swirling all around you. No wonder there is so much anxiety, especially in 2020. Anxiety is the most common mental disorder in the U.S., affecting 40 million adults. (ADAA, 2020) As 2020 continues, that number will likely continue to rise.
So, what to do? Understanding that we live in a VUCA world is the first step. You cannot banish VUCA, but if you are at least aware of it and understand it exists, that will go a long way in helping to manage it by planning for it. From a strategic planning perspective, that understanding is the difference between planning and designing futures proactively versus reactively.
If you want to learn more about VUCA, here are a few resources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqQh9t-VLIY https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity https://thefuturesschool.com/profiles-in-vuca/ (I’m adaptive and working on growing my transformative skills)
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